Examine Population Growth Rate in Tucson, Arizona MSA
How are we doing?
Population Growth Rate (2025)
The Tucson Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) grew by 0.7% in 2025, reaching a population of 1,093,761 residents. Among 12 peer western MSAs, Tucson ranked fifth in population growth. Austin reported the fastest growth at 2.1%, while El Paso and San Diego experienced the largest population declines at 0.2%. Overall, Tucson’s population has grown steadily since 2010.
Why is it important?
Population growth is a key indicator of community change, reflecting the combined effects of net migration and natural increase (births minus deaths). Population growth is influenced by many factors, including employment opportunities, housing availability, and the quality of local services and amenities. As the population increases, demand for housing, goods, services, and infrastructure rises, supporting regional economic development. Because of these linkages, population is a carefully monitored statistic and plays a role in public decision-making related to infrastructure investment and community planning. For example, federal highway funding formulas rely heavily on metropolitan population levels and expected growth within urbanized areas.
How do we compare?
In 2024, adults ages 20-44 represented the largest share of the population in Tucson, Arizona, and the nation at 33.2%, 33.2%, and 33.4%, respectively. Residents ages 65 and older accounted for 21.6% of Tucson's population in 2024, compared to 17.2% nationally. The greater share of older residents in Tucson reflects the area’s role as a retirement destination. In Tucson, residents under age 20 and those ages 45-64 each made up 22.6% of the population. The share of Tucson residents under age 20 was lower than both the state and national averages.
Tucson’s population also differs from the state and the nation in terms of ethnicity and race. In 2024, Hispanic or Latino residents comprised 36.4% of Tucson’s population, exceeding Arizona’s share of 31.4%, and nearly double the national rate of 19.3%. By contrast, the share of the residents identifying as white, non-Hispanic was slightly lower than the national share. Tucson’s Black and Asian population shares were also below national rates.
What are the key trends?
The Tucson MSA and the state of Arizona have experienced greater volatility in population growth rates than the nation. National population growth remained near 1.0% through much of the 2000s before gradually slowing. Growth reached a low of 0.2% in 2021, the weakest rate in more than two decades. Since then, national growth rebounded to 1.0% in 2024 before slowing again to 0.5% in 2025.
By comparison, Tucson and Arizona posted wide fluctuations in population growth between 2001 and 2019, with a high of 2.8% in Tucson and 3.5% statewide. At the end of the Great Recession, Tucson experienced a brief period of population decline. Since 2011, however, Tucson's population has increased every year, with annual growth rates ranging from 0.4% to 1.3%. In 2025, population growth slowed to 0.7% in Tucson and 1.3% in Arizona. In recent years, Tucson's population growth has been driven solely by net migration, as natural increase has turned negative.
How is it measured?
Population growth rates are calculated using annual population levels reported by the Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity and the Census Bureau's Population Estimates Program (PEP). Population profile information comes from the U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey (ACS) five-year estimates.
