Examine Housing Affordability Trends in Tucson, Arizona MSA
How are we doing?
Housing Affordability (2025)
Share of Household Median Income Needed to Afford Median Priced Home
In 2025, a household earning the median income in the Tucson Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) would need to spend 43.7% of its annual income to purchase a median-priced home, slightly above the national share of 43.1%. While Tucson ranks relatively well among peer MSAs, tied with El Paso for the third-lowest share of income required to afford a median-priced home, housing costs remain well above affordability thresholds.
The standard affordability benchmark is 30% of income. That means when the share of income needed to buy a home exceeds 30%, it is considered unaffordable. When housing costs reach 30%, households are more likely to face trade-offs that limit their ability to cover other expenses, such as healthcare, childcare, transportation, and food.
Why is it important?
Housing affordability is an important issue for households and the broader economy. For most households, a home is their largest asset, and the cost of housing impacts how income is allocated across other essential and discretionary areas such as childcare, education, health care, and leisure activities. Historically, households are considered cost-burdened when housing expenditure exceeds 30% of their income. This designation evolved from the United States National Housing Act of 1937. Since personal consumption drives a large share of economic activity, housing costs play a key role in determining discretionary income. Home prices are influenced by several factors, including mortgage rates, demographics, income growth, new housing supply, and speculative trends. Housing affordability is measured by the share of income a household earning the local median income would need to purchase the local median-priced home. Housing affordability data comes from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
How do we compare?
The share of income needed to afford the median-priced home in Tucson has varied significantly over the past two decades. A home is considered affordable when a household earning the median income spends less than 30% of that income on housing.
Tucson’s least affordable period for housing occurred just before the Great Recession. In 2006, a median-income household needed to spend 49% of its income to purchase a median-priced home. Affordability improved drastically during the housing market correction, with the share of income required to purchase the median-priced home falling below the 30% cutoff and remaining there for much of 2009 to 2021. Since 2021, affordability has fallen as home prices have increased faster than wages. That, coupled with higher interest rates, has pushed the share of income needed to afford the median-priced home above the affordability threshold. More recently, affordability conditions have begun to ease in Tucson. Since mid-2025, the share of income needed to afford a median-priced home has gradually declined as home prices have softened and household incomes have increased.
Use the drop-down menu above the graph to view housing affordability trends across Tucson's peer MSAs.
Despite reduced affordability, Tucson remains one of the most affordable regions to purchase a home when compared to peer western MSAs. In 2025, the median sales price of a single-family home in Tucson was $387,400, well below the national level and many comparable MSAs. On the other end, San Diego’s median home price surpassed $1 million in 2024 and continued to rise in 2025.
Median Home Price (2025)
Home prices have increased rapidly in recent years, driven by strong demand and limited supply. Growth in home prices slowed in the second half of 2022 as rising interest rates softened the market. That slowdown proved temporary, as home prices increased by 3.9% between 2023 and 2024. Tucson reached a new all-time peak in the median sales price of a single-family home of $391,700 in 2024. Preliminary data for 2025 indicates a modest correction in Tucson’s home prices, with prices declining by 1.1%. Nationally, home price growth also slowed, increasing by just 1.7% over the year. Tucson was one of four MSAs tracked on the MAP Dashboard to experience a decline in home prices in 2025. Austin posted a similar decrease of 1.0%, while San Antonio declined by 0.8% and Denver by 0.5%. In contrast, several MSAs continued to see modest price increases in 2025. Albuquerque posted a 3.5% increase, and Salt Lake City saw prices rise by 2.5%.
What are the key trends?
Tucson’s housing affordability trend has mirrored the nation, with a high share of income needed to purchase the median-priced home leading up to the Great Recession. As home prices declined during the downturn, the share of income required to purchase a median-priced home fell below the 30% affordability threshold. Tucson remained below that threshold for more than a decade, significantly longer than the nation. That trend reversed in 2021, when home prices and interest rates began rising faster than wages. As a result, the share of income needed to purchase a median-priced home increased above the affordability threshold and has remained elevated since. As of February 2026, a household in Tucson earning the median income would need to spend 40.2% of its income to afford a median-priced home. While this remains above the affordability cutoff, it is slightly lower than the national share of 41.6% and below Phoenix at 41.2%.
How is it measured?
Housing affordability data come from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's Home Ownership Affordability Monitor (HOAM), which provides a monthly measure of the median-income household's ability to afford the median-priced home. HOAM includes the full cost of homeownership, including monthly principal and interest, current mortgage interest rates, taxes, property insurance, and private mortgage insurance. HOAM uses the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) 30 percent of income affordability threshold to measure affordability. The HOAM uses median household income from the U.S. Census Bureau, median sales price data from Zonda Home, and 30-year fixed mortgage rates from Freddie Mac, while assuming a 10% down payment. Private mortgage insurance (PMI) is estimated at 0.558% of the mortgage amount. The data is reported monthly, and the Making Action Possible (MAP) research team aggregates the data into an annual value.
