Labor Force Participation Rate Report for Southern Arizona Cities, Towns, and Census-Designated Places

Labor force participation rates varied substantially across Southern Arizona in 2021. Hereafter, when discussing multiple cities, towns, or census-designated places (CDP) the general term communities will be used. This article explores 41 of the largest communities within Cochise, Pima, Pinal, Greenlee, Graham, Santa Cruz, and Yuma counties. Due to the importance of mining in Greenlee County, we also include three nearby communities in New Mexico.

In 2021, the average labor force participation rate for those 16 years and older for the 41 communities tracked on the MAP was 53.3%. That has remained constant since 2015.

At 17.5%, the town of Florence had the lowest labor force participation rate among Southern Arizona communities. The Morenci CDP reported the highest labor force participation rate at 78.8%. Of the 41 communities tracked on the MAP, 20 followed an upward trend between 2000 and 2021. Among those 20 communities, the city of San Luis posted the largest increase in the labor force participation rate, moving up 12.4 percentage points since 2000 to land at 52.8% in 2021. The city of Eloy and the Picture Rocks CDP both experienced a decline, with a decrease of 25.4 and 20.7 percentage points, respectively, between 2000 and 2021 (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Labor Force Participation Rate for Adults 16+ (2021)

The labor force participation rate, which includes both the employed and the unemployed who are actively seeking employment, is an important gauge of the health and potential output of the economy. As the economy expands, more individuals will be encouraged to enter the labor force. However, the demographics of a region can affect this measure significantly. For example, a population with a higher percentage of adults in their prime working years typically will have a higher labor force participation rate and the potential for higher economic growth. Holding these demographic factors constant, a higher labor force participation rate indicates that workers believe businesses are hiring for jobs that are worth their time and effort – valuable information in assessing the labor market in a region.

The labor force participation rates for those 16 years and older vary significantly by ethnicity across the Southern Arizona communities. The Vail CDP reported the highest labor force participation rate for Hispanics at 75.1% and the Morenci CDP had the same percentage for White, non-Hispanic. Substantial variation exists for many of the Southern Arizona communities between Hispanic and White, non-Hispanic, including communities such as the cities of Douglas and Willcox, with a difference between both groups of 28.6 and 25.5 percentage points, respectively, in favor of Hispanics. The average difference between Hispanics and White, non-Hispanic for all Southern Arizona communities was 11.7 percentage points. That was greater than the U.S. difference of 5.7 percentage points. See Figure 2 for the labor force participation by ethnicity for the Southern Arizona communities.

Figure 2: Labor force Participation Rate by Race & Ethnicity  (2021)

We will now explore the prime working age (25-54) for gender and the overall trend. As many individuals under 25 are still in school and many older people may be retired, those in the prime working-age group make up the majority of the labor force.

The labor force participation rates exhibited significant variability by gender across the Southern Arizona communities (Figure 3). For men ages 25-54, the town of Sahuarita had the highest labor force participation rate at 94.9%, outpacing the state (86.0%) and the U.S. (87.4%). This trend holds for communities such as the Catalina Foothills CDP (93.2%), the city of Maricopa (91.9%), and the town of Oro Valley (91.6%). For women ages, 25-54, the town of Marana had the highest labor force participation rate (81.1%) and outpaced the state (75.3%) and the U.S. (77.8%). The town of Sahuarita exhibited the highest female-male differential, with men surpassing women by 29.8 percentage points.

Figure 3: Labor Force Participation Rate by Gender (25-54)  (2021)

The U.S. economy experienced a long-term increase in the labor force participation rate due to an increase in the percentage of women participating in the workforce during the second half of the 20th century. This trend continued from 2000 through 2021 as the national rate among prime working-age adults (25-54) rose from 79.6% to 82.6%. In 2021, the Vail CDP posted the highest rate of labor force participation at 88.4% among adults in their prime working years (ages 25-54). That was 7.7 percentage points higher than the state’s rate of 80.7% and 5.8 percentage points higher than the U.S. rate of 82.6%.

Eleven Southern Arizona municipalities outperformed the U.S. labor force participation rate for prime working age in 2021 (including the Vail CDP): Corona de Tucson (84.6%), Casas Adobes (85.0%), Catalina Foothills (85.5%), and Drexel Heights CDP’s with a rate of 83.2%, the towns of Miami (87.8%), Clifton (84.8%) and Marana (85.0%) and the cities of Yuma (83.3%) Maricopa (82.8%) and Sierra Vista (82.9%). The town of Miami posted the largest increase in the prime working age labor force participation rate between 2000 and 2021 when compared to the 41 Southern Arizona communities, increasing from 69.3% in 2000 to 87.8% in 2021, an 18.5 percentage point rise. Communities with a high percentage of the population in the prime working age (25-54) tend to have higher labor force participation rates. Figure 4 shows the labor force participation rate for the prime working age for the Southern Arizona communities.

Figure 4: Labor Force Participation Rate for the Prime Working Age (25-54)  (2021)

The labor force participation rate is calculated by dividing the total number of people in the labor force by the total population. The labor force includes both the employed and the unemployed who are actively seeking work. Data for 2010, 2015, and 2021 are from the American Community Survey (ACS) five-year estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, while data for the year 2000 are from the U.S. Census 2000 SF3 sample. The ACS is a nationwide rolling sample survey that produces one-year and five-year estimates on demographic, social, housing, and economic measures. Note that the ACS five-year estimates are produced over a five-year time period and can only be compared to non-overlapping five-year estimates (for example 2005-2009 and 2010-2014).