How Does Clinical Care Measure Up in the Tucson, Arizona MSA
What does healthcare infrastructure look like for the Tucson Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)? Do we have enough physicians, mental health providers, or dentists? How do we compare to our peer MSAs? This article explores clinical care capacity, a cornerstone of strong health infrastructure.
Clinical care depends on having enough providers to meet community needs. Here, we focus on three key measures: primary care physicians, mental health providers, and dentists. The availability of healthcare providers is fundamental to clinical care capacity and directly impacts how well a community’s health needs are addressed. According to County Health Rankings & Roadmaps, adequate numbers of primary care physicians are essential for preventive care and referrals to specialists; an insufficient provider supply is linked to higher rates of hospitalization and poorer health outcomes. In 2021, the U.S. had a Primary Care Physician (PCP) rate of 97.1 per 100,000 population, meaning there were about 97 primary care doctors available for every 100,000 residents nationwide. Among MAP’s peer western MSAs, Denver had the highest Primary Care Physician (PCP) rate in 2021, with 92.2 physicians per 100,000 population, followed closely by Albuquerque at 91.5. Tucson ranked third, with a PCP rate of 87.1, all below the nation. While these rates indicate relatively strong access to primary care within the region, they also highlight a gap compared to the overall U.S. rate (see Figure 1).
Figure 1: Primary Care Physician (PCP) Rate by MSAs (2021)
The provider rates presented in this article reflect the most recent available data from County Health Rankings at the time of publication. These include data from 2021 for primary care physicians, 2022 for dentists, and 2024 for mental health providers. Although the data years vary, these snapshots offer the latest insights into provider availability across the regions studied.
Why Clinical Care and Health Infrastructure Matter
Clinical care and health infrastructure include the services, facilities, and resources that keep communities healthy and prevent disease. This covers primary, specialty, and dental care in hospitals, clinics, and long-term care settings, as well as public health programs that monitor and respond to community needs. Care must be accessible, safe, affordable, timely, and culturally respectful to support overall health equity.
According to Healthy People 2030, a national initiative led by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, a well-functioning health infrastructure depends not only on facilities and services but also on trained professionals, real-time data, and collaborative systems that can respond to evolving public health needs. Additionally, the physical and organizational design, such as safe hospital layouts, up-to-date medical equipment, and integrated technology systems, plays a crucial role in supporting both patient care and staff well-being. A thoughtfully built health system improves outcomes, boosts efficiency, and makes it easier for people to receive continuous and coordinated care1.
Provider Availability: A Key Measure of Clinical Capacity
In 2021, Pima County, which corresponds geographically to the Tucson MSA, reported the highest Primary Care Physician (PCP) rate among Arizona counties, with 87.1 physicians per 100,000 population, followed by Coconino County at 82.0. In sharp contrast, Pinal County had a significantly lower rate of 17.8, highlighting a substantial disparity in access to primary care across Arizona (see Figure 2).
Figure 2: Primary Care Physician (PCP) Rate by Arizona Counties (2021)
Similarly, limited access to mental health professionals and dentists, can leave significant gaps in diagnosis, treatment, and ongoing care. When provider shortages exist, individuals may delay or forego essential care, leading to preventable complications and wider health disparities. Metrics like the ratio of population to primary care physicians and mental health provider ratios offer clear insight into a community's capacity for clinical care, highlighting whether residents can reliably receive timely, continuous, and quality medical attention.
In 2024, the U.S. had a mental health provider rate of 333.3 per 100,000 population. Among Tucson’s peer MSAs, Salt Lake City stood out with the highest rate at 555.8 providers per 100,000, indicating strong access to mental health services. In contrast, Tucson ranked second to last with a rate of 240.5, while Phoenix had the lowest at 201.5. Both Arizona metros fell well below the national rate, highlighting gaps in mental health care availability across the state of Arizona (see Figure 3).
Figure 3: Metal Health Provider Rate by MSAs (2024)
In 2022, the U.S. had a dentist provider rate of 73.5 per 100,000 population. Among Tucson’s peer MSAs, El Paso led with the highest rate at 130.2 providers per 100,000, followed by Colorado Springs (101.8) and San Diego (98.7), indicating relatively better access to dental care in those regions. In contrast, Tucson had a significantly lower rate at 67.2, while Las Vegas had the lowest at just 51.8 (see Figure 4).
Figure 4: Dentists Rate by MSAs (2022)
Looking Ahead: Projected Supply and Demand for Primary Care Workers.
Between 2025 and 2035, both the U.S. and Arizona are expected to experience growing shortages of primary care physicians. According to National Center for Health Workforce Analysis projections, Arizona will have only 55.3% of the primary care providers it needs by 2035; down from 64.5% in 2025. To close this gap, the state will require 3,870 additional physicians to meet projected demand and address its Health Professional Shortage Areas (HPSAs).
To help address this shortage, the University of Arizona has introduced initiatives to accelerate the path to becoming a primary care physician. Notably, the Arizona Board of Regents approved a three-year medical degree pathway at the university’s two separately accredited medical schools. This accelerated program aims to produce more primary care providers more quickly, directly addressing the state's physician shortage.
Nationally, primary care adequacy is expected to drop from 85.7% in 2025 to 77.7% in 2035, an 8.0 percentage points decline, but Arizona’s decrease of 9.2 points is even sharper. That comparison highlights that Arizona’s provider shortage is worsening at a faster pace than the national trend, underscoring the urgency of the state’s response (see Figure 5).
The primary care workforce presented in this MAP article includes Family Medicine Physicians, General Internal Medicine Physicians, Geriatrics Physicians, and Pediatrics Physicians. The data on the table below come from the National Center for Health Workforce Analysis projections dashboard.
Figure 5: U.S. & Arizona Supply and Demand of Primary Care Workers (2025-2035)
Clinical care is a critical pillar of community health, and the availability of healthcare providers directly impacts health outcomes across the Southern Arizona region. This article highlighted key disparities in access to primary care physicians, mental health providers, and dentists, particularly in Arizona, where many areas fall below national averages. As workforce projections indicate growing shortages in the years ahead in primary care, it becomes clear that strengthening clinical care infrastructure is essential to meeting the needs of a changing population. A well-supported healthcare workforce is not only vital to improving health equity but also to ensuring long-term community resilience.
This article is the first in a three-part series exploring the key components of community health through the lens of the County Health Rankings model. The series will provide a deeper understanding of the factors that shape public health in Arizona, with each article focusing on a specific dimension of the model. Stay tuned for the next two articles, which will explore on lifespan and quality of life.
Reference:
1 Luxon L. Infrastructure - the key to healthcare improvement. Future Hosp J. 2015 Feb;2(1):4-7. doi: 10.7861/futurehosp.2-1-4. PMID: 31098066; PMCID: PMC6465866.
